Mariners Top 15 Prospects

With prospect season just around the corner, Top Prospect lists will be released soon. Everyone gets excited to read about their team’s prospects to see what they have going forward into the future. J.P. Schwartz (@jaypers413) has posted his top 15 prospects for each organization on http://www.topprospectalert.com/ (@minorleagueblog) I have taken the 2011 Mariners list that Schwartz has made and added stats, info, and scouting reports for each player.

Let us start with #15 and work out way down.

15. Dennis Raben: The 23 year old saw time a Low A Clinton and High A Mavericks last year in his second season. He hit .291/.367/.570 and 30 homeruns. He bats and throws left handed and stands 6’3” weighing 200 lb. Over his career he has seen time playing at both first base and the corner outfield positions but primarily first base. He was drafted in the 2^nd round by the M’s in the 2008 draft. Scouts view him as a confident hitter with pure power. His build is compared to that of Chipper Jones. He projects to hit a lot of homeruns with his raw power but the contact isn’t there so we may see lots of strikeouts as well. He will be a 1B/DH type player.

14. Brandol Perez: This kid is only 17!!! This young pitcher dominated the Dominican Summer League and he was only 16 at the time. It is hard not to get excited about this kid when looking at his build. The lefty stands at 6’4” and weighs 175 lb. He went 7-0 in 48.1 IP posting an ERA of 0.19 and a WHIP of 0.703. He also struck out 68 batters giving him a K/9 of 12.7. That is outstanding stuff! He has a fastball, curveball, slider and a change up that is soon to come. He lacks of experience but he has shown maturity. He still needs lots of improvement but that is expected for a player that is his age. I really think he could be a top of the rotation starter for the Mariners in 5 years.

13. Greg Halman: Halman is another very raw talent that is a part of this organization. He is now 23 at 6’4” and 200 lb. Last year was his 6^th season and he was at AAA the whole year playing CF, and he also saw himself as a September call-up. He hit .243 last year with 33 homeruns and 80 RBI. He has shown great power but he strikes out way too much. He struck out 169 times last year which lead the PCL. Halman is a very athletic player and has shown great fielding abilities while manning center field. He could turn out to be a very good outfielder if he improves his plate discipline. I see him playing off the bench for the Mariners in 2011 at both DH and all three outfield positions.

12. Taijuan Walker: The 6’4” RHP was drafted as a sandwich pick (Pick #43) by the Mariners in the 2010 draft straight out of high school. He is 18 and is listed at 185 lb. He pitched only 7 innings last year for rookie ball. He posted a 1.29 ERA and 9 strikeouts. He was a great basketball player in high school which shows he has great athleticism. His arsenal consists of a fastball, changeup, curveball, and slider. His fastball sits in the low 90’s but he has touched 95 MPH with it. He has shown great secondary pitchers but they aren’t always consistent. Walker has a great build and is very projectable. He is very raw but has great potential to be a front line power pitcher. He is a work in progress and I figure we won’t see him in the majors for another 4-5 years.

11. Carlos Peguero: The 23 year old left handed hitting OF has a huge build at 6’5” and 210 lb. All this size does not go to waste as he has shown excellent power. He spent all of last year at AA West Tennessee where he hit .254 with 23 homeruns and 73 RBI. He does have great power but he has showed poor discipline and a knack for constantly swinging at first pitches. He struck out 178 which was even more than the previous year in which he struck out 172 times. His 178 K led the southern league by a large margin. He does have a good arm as well as good speed but he is still 1.5-2 years away due to the fact that he can’t make contact with the ball.  Peguero has very raw talent but if he greatly improves his discipline, patience, and contact and he could be a very solid major league player.

10. Marcus Littlewood: The Mariners drafted this 18 year old 6’3” 200 lb shortstop with the 67^th pick in the 2010 draft. He is a switch hitter but he did not see any times in the pros last year so let’s take a look at his high school stats. In his senior year he hit .538 with 8 homeruns, 27 RBI, and 27 BB. His Father, Mike was drafted by the Brewers in 1988 so he has grown up around baseball. Littlewood does not have great power at the moment but scouts believe some power will develop. Scouts say he has a good arm and fielding abilities but he does not have the best range. There is the idea that he may move to 3^rd because his build may be to big for a shortstop. Wherever he does end up I believe he will be a solid hitting infielder with good defensive skills. His floor is a utility man but his ceiling is possibly a solid defender that hits for a decent average and 15-20 homeruns. He is only 18 and he still was a while to go before we see him in the majors.

9. Ji-Man Choi: This 19 year old Korean completed his first pro season last year after being signed out of Korea. He bats lefty and he is 6’1” and 195 lb. He was signed as a catcher but last year he saw much more time at first base. He started off the year in Arizona League and he finished with the High Desert Mavericks (High A). He hit a combined .360 with 2 homeruns in 178 at bats. He also showed great gap power as he posted 16 doubles. While the homerun power was not there it is great to see him hitting for average. Scouts believe there is power in his swing so it’s just a matter of him developing before we see that power.

8. Stephen Pryor: The 21 year old RHP was drafted in the 5^th round out of Tennessee Tech College by the Mariners in the 2010 draft. He is an intimidating force on the mound at 6’4” and 235 lb. In his first season last year, he played even time at Everett and Clinton. He put up great numbers in 35.1 IP. He had an ERA of 2.04, 5 saves, and 55 strikeouts! That gave him a K/9 of 14.0. This pure reliever showed a great ability to strikeout batters. His fastball is consistently in the mid 90’s but he has reached 99 MPH. He set the Tennessee Tech record for K/9 with 16.46. Baseball America listed him as one of the hardest throwing pitchers in the draft. Jason Churchill of prospect insider compares Pryor’s use of his lower half to that of Joel Zumaya- they both do it well. To go along with his fastball, he has a slider that is in the mid 80’s. I think he will make the jump to AA this year and we will see him with the Mariners in 1-2 years. He will be a great piece to go along with the other young developing bullpen arms that the Mariners have.

7. Guillermo Pimentel: Pimentel was one of the top Dominican players signed this offseason and he will be receiving a $2MM bonus. The left handed power bat is 6’1” and weighs 180 lb. He is now 18 and he saw limited time in the Arizona Summer league where he played all three outfield positions. This was his first pro season and he hit .251 with 6 homeruns, and 31 RBI in 184 AB. He stuck out 58 times and walked only 5 times. He will need to improve his plate discipline but then again he was only 17 at the time so there is no reason to get worried. Baseball America ranked him as the top prospect for the 2010 Arizona Summer League. Scouts believe he has PLUS power due to a short swing and an advanced approach at the plate. He is not the best fielder but he figures to move to LF permanently as he fills out. His arm is nothing special he is not a great runner. Pimentel is a long ways away but it will be exciting to see his power develop.

6. Blake Beavan: This 21 year old RHP came to the Mariners from the Rangers in the Cliff Lee deal. He was originally drafted by the Rangers in the first round of the 2007^th MLB Draft. He has a very intimidating presence on the mound at 6’7” and 250 lb. He spent last year at AA (Tex and Sea) and AAA Tacoma to finish off the year. He had an ERA of 3.90 in 168.1 IP. The strikeouts weren’t there as he only struck out 101 batters. He had a very solid WHIP of 1.158 and he walked only 21 batters. Those numbers show he has good command which is great to have in any young pitcher. When Beavan was first drafted his fastball touch 96-97 MPH. After Texas cleaned up his mechanics it now sits in the low 90s but he has great command with it. His secondary pitches consist of a change up and a slider which have both been improving but they are not a strikeout pitch. The command is certainly there for Beavan but the velocity and strikeout stuff is not. His size certainly suggests that more velocity will develop and his excellent command will also generate more strikeouts as he develops. Scouts say he is a safe bet as a back of the rotation starter but he has a ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. I figure he will start the year at AAA and if anyone goes down we will see him up in the big leagues.

5. Johermyn Chavez: Chavez first came over to the Mariners in the deal that send Brandon Morrow to the Bluejays. This power hitting right handed bat played all of last year for the High Desert Mavericks. He is now 21 and stands 6’3” and 220 lb while playing a majority of right field. Chavez showed great power last year as he hit 32 homeruns but that was in the hitter friendly California League. Despite the league and the ballpark though, he is still projected to have great power. Last year he hit .315 with 96 RBI in 534 at bats. He had a great OPS as he finished 2^nd in the California league with .964. His strikeout rate is not as high as other young power hitting corner outfields but it still needs to be improved. He struck out 131 times last year but he did see an increase in walks which is a good sign. He walked a career high 52 times showing better plate discipline. He is an average fielder and has average speed so what is best about him is his power. Scouts figure he will improve his power even more as he develops. He should see all of next year at AA maybe some time at AAA as well. He could be a very powerful DH/RF for the Mariners in a few years.

4. Alex Liddi: The 22 year old Italian native has seen his stock rise year after year. He is trying to become the second born Italian-born position player to make it to the majors. He is 6’4” weighing 176 lb and plays third base. In 2009 Liddi put up outstanding numbers while tearing up the High A California league. He hit .345 with 23 homeruns and 104 RBI. Liddi played all of last year at AA West Tennessee and there was some decline in his numbers, but we can’t hold that against him because he was after all in the hitter friendly California League. Last year he hit .281 with 15 homeruns and 92 RBI which lead the southern league. Liddi did strikeout too much in his previous years and this year was disappointing as he saw a huge increase in his strikeouts. He struck out 145 times which was the second most in the southern league. Scouts believe he is a stud and that he will put up power to all sides of the field. He had good bat speed and good pitch recognition. Scouts aren’t thrilled about his defense so we may or may not see him at third base in the future. Being that he has played 5 seasons at third base it appears the Mariners want him to stick there. Liddi could be a very solid everyday player at third base hitting for a solid average and 20 homeruns while producing good run support. I figure that Liddi should be at AAA all of 2011 with maybe a September call-up.

3. Nick Franklin: This talented 19 year old switch hitting shortstop was drafted 27^th by the Mariners in the 2009 draft straight out of high school. He is 6’1”, 170 lb, and still only 19. In his first full pro-season last year, Franklin saw his stock increase dramatically. He played almost the whole season for Low A Clinton but he was called up to AA to help them in the playoffs. He hit .283 with 23 homeruns, 65 RBI, 25 stolen bases, and 22 doubles. His 23 homeruns led the Midwest league. This was a historic season for Franklin as he recorded the third highest amount of homeruns in the Midwest League by a teenager in history. When he got the call to West Tennessee he went 2-3 with 1 walk and 3 runs. He doesn’t have any tools that really stand out to scouts but he does have very solid tool set. Scouts are impressed by how he plays the game. Franklin is a solid defender but nothing special. Scouts were surprised with the amount of power he showed this year and let’s hope that he keeps it up. He has a nice level swing and a great feel for the game. His ceiling is an above-average shortstop but the most likely outcome is that he is a solid everyday shortstop. I think he will start the year at AA and he is still 1.5-2 years away. He will be a great fit at the top of the order for the Mariners in a few years.

2. Michael Pineda: The native Dominican Republican had really been opening eyes as he progresses through the system. He his career did take a little bit of a hit when he faced elbow injuries in 2009 but that hasn’t seemed to hold him back. This tall, lean, right handed pitcher stands 6’5” and 180 lb. Last year was his 5^th professional season with Mariners and he was at AA West Tennessee and AAA Tacoma. At West Tennessee he was very dominant posting an ERA of 2.22 and a WHIP of 1.091 in 77 IP. He also struck out 78 batters. After tearing apart AA he got the call to AAA where he saw a total of 62.1 IP. His numbers were not as good but he still pitched well. His ERA was 4.76 and he had a WHIP of 1.139. He struck out 76 batters giving him a K/9 at Tacoma of 11.0. His overall numbers for 2010 were an ERA of 3.36, a WHIP of 1.112, and a K/9 of 9.9. His career ERA is an outstanding 2.49! I was lucky enough to see every one of Pineda’s home starts for Tacoma. I noticed that the first couple time around the order Pineda was much more dominant. Once the AAA batters started seeing him a second and third time they began to catch up to his fastball more. His high 90’s fastball was very fun to see and he located it will. He struck out lots of batters with a low and away fastball. He has great command with that pitch. He has a very solid fastball reaching the upped 90’s but to be successful he needs to improve his secondary pitches. He has a changeup and a slider that continue to improve but they aren’t anything special. He has a great mound presence and solid mechanics. Pineda has a shot to come out of spring training in the Mariners rotation but I think it would be better to give him a few months of work at AAA. He is very talented and I can’t wait to see him in a few years. He has a great potential to be a frontline started but if not he will be a very solid number 3 started.

1. Dustin Ackley: And here he is Mariners fans- your number one prospect. Ackley was drafted second by the Mariners in the 2009 draft behind Stephen Strasburg. Ackley is now 22 and he played three years at North Carolina in college where he was one of the best hitters in the nation. Ackley was drafted as first baseman but he is now making the transition to play second base for Seattle. He bats left handed and stands 6’1” and 185 lb. Last year was his first full season and he started off at AA. He didn’t hit as expected but part of that may be due to the fact that he was adjusting to a new position. He hit .263 with 2 homeruns, and 8 stolen bases in 389 AB. They called him up to AAA despite somewhat disappointing numbers. For AAA he put up better numbers hitting .274 with 5 homeruns. Ackley’s career really took off this fall in the Arizona Fall League. He was awarded the MVP after leading the league in AVG (.424), OBP (.581), SLG (.758), OPS (1.338), and runs scored (28). He also his 4 homeruns and stole 5 bases in 5 attempts. He seemed to progress offensively and defensively throughout each stage of his first professional career. One thing that remained constant throughout his first season was a great eye, drawing lots of walks. He led the AFL in walks and drew at total of 75 walks between AA and AAA. I got the chance to see Ackley play at AAA Tacoma and he looked very small compared to every one else. He should fill out more as he develops. Scouts say Ackley will be nothing more than an average fielder at second base. But that’s not why we drafted him. He was drafted for his offensive potential. Coming out of college, Adam Foster discussed his swing and stated that “Ackley has a tendency to stride too far towards home plate and he closes himself off early in his swing. This cuts off his weight shift slightly and leads to a soft front side” This in return reduces some of his power potential. Foster goes on to continue that this is an easy adjustment for him to make. Ackley is a very polished hitter and will hit for a great average and possibly 20+ homeruns. He has a high ceiling of Chase Utley type numbers and also a very high floor. We should expect big things from Ackley going forward. He should be a top 10 prospect in all prospect rankings this year. He has a great chance to break camp as the opening day starting second baseman but there is still a chance for him to spend a little more time at AAA. Expect him to be a great candidate for rookie of the year.

                                                                                                                                               

The Mariners have an outstanding farm system with loads of talent. There are many other notable guys that didn’t quite crack this top 15 list that we must also watch moving onto the future. With all this talent it looks promising for the Mariners to turn this franchise around.

Winter Meetings are in a few days and the next thing we know Pitchers and Catchers will be reporting to spring training. In the mean time we should see these guys really working hard to continue their development towards one day being apart of the Mariners at the big league level

Let’s get ready for 2011!