Every year in the MLB there are always a handful of free agent signings that are considered low risk/high reward. What I mean by low risk/high reward is that they are a cheap acquisition but they could turn out to put up great numbers. They might not always be in a starting role but they can still be very important coming off of the bench.
It isn’t always easy to predict who is going to be one of these players prior to the season but there are some characteristics that they generally have. At one point in their career, a player like this has typically put up good numbers for a few seasons before seeing a decline in their value and production.
A player coming off of an injury that has sidelined them for a long time is a good candidate. Whenever a player misses a year of baseball or had a season(s) filled with injuries they see their value diminish greatly when they hit the free agent market. It’s sometimes just a matter of them being healthy before they get back to what they once were or close to it.
We also see players that are coming off of a very disappointing year as great candidates. After a player puts up solid numbers year after year and then all of sudden sees a great decrease in their numbers, there has to be something that can be fixed. Showing great numbers over a career shows that a player knows how to get it done. It can simply be a change in mechanics or scenery that gets them back to their usual stuff.
A washed up veteran player can fall under a combination of both of these categories. We often see a player’s numbers decrease and their health decline as they age. A veteran player like this sees themselves playing under a back up role where they are more of a mentor then a producer. All of a sudden we may see some sort of spark that takes off a veteran player’s career again which turns out great for his team.
There are many prospects that at one point were highly touted but were not quite able to put it together. One would question where all their talent could go but sometimes it’s just a matter of being put on a new team and having new coaches work with them. A few minor adjustments could turn a washed up former top prospect into a contributing part to a major league team.
Then there are the cases of a team simply getting lucky but those don’t happen too often. But what ever case it is these types of players always come cheap which is what makes them such a low risk.
Last year we saw some players that fell under these categories and proved to be high rewards for their team after not making lots of money. Some notable names are Ivan Rodriguez, Livan Hernandez, R.A. Dickey, and Kelly Johnson.
Ivan Rodriguez was signed by the Nationals for 2 year/6M. He had seen a decline in his offense for the last few years and he was 38 years old at the time he was signed. Those two things don’t make him a very appealing option but the Nationals signed him for cheap and he appeared to be signed as a back up and mentor primarily. This turned out great as he put up solid numbers and took over the starting role. He hit .266/.294/.347 while putting up great defense. I assume he will be mentoring behind Wilson Ramos in 2011
Livan Hernandez was signed by the Nationals to a minor league contract, a 1 year/900K deal. He wasn’t even a lock to be in the starting rotation before spring training. The 35 year old had put up very poor numbers in the previous years. Livan Hernandez turned out to be a consistent option as he averaged 6.4 IP per outing (211.2 IP in 33 GS). He had an ERA of 3.66 last year which is much better than his ERA of 5.44 in 2009 and his career ERA of 4.39. He recently signed a one-year extension with the Nationals but I don’t think he will put up the same numbers in 2011.
R.A. Dickey was outstanding for the Mets at the age of 36. The former first round draft pick, prior to the 2010 season, had only seen 442.9 IP and 48 games started in the majors. Most of his career has been in the minors. He was signed by the Mets for the 2010 season for a 1 year/$600,000 minor league contract. He turned out to be one of the best pitchers for the Mets. He posted a 2.84 ERA in 27 games which ranked 7th in the NL. This was an outstanding season for him and the Mets got that production from him for very cheap. The Mets have showed a desire to sign Dickey for a multi-year contract and I mean he is still very young in terms of knuckleballer years. I do not see him putting up numbers this good next year but possibly around a 3.50 ERA.
After the 2009 season Kelly Johnson was non-tendered by the Braves after a very disappointing year in which he hit .224/.303/.389 with a career low 8 homeruns and 29 RBI. The Diamondbacks signed Johnson for a very cheap contract of 1Y/$2.35M deal. The D-Backs were greatly rewarded as Johnson performed better than expected. He usually posts a .275 AVG and around 14 homeruns. In 2010 he hit .284/.370/.496 in 671 PA which was a personal record for the most in a single season. He also hit a career high 26 homeruns and 71 RBI. He was tendered by the Diamondbacks so they will now be entering the Arbitration process.
There were other low risk/high reward players from 2010 but now it’s time to look onto 2011. Michael Hering (@bigmike0424) and I have come up with a list of players that are low risk/high reward options for 2011.
Jermaine Dye sat out all of last year due to the fact teams weren’t willing to pay him what he wanted. Dye is capable of posting a good AVG to go along with great power. His career AVG is .274 and he can put up 25+ homeruns. After sitting out all of last year I believe he will sign with whoever is willing to sign him. He shouldn’t be too expensive but he could still put up good numbers out of possibly a DH role.
Brad Hawpe saw a huge decline in his numbers last year. He usually posts an AVG around .280 and 20+ homeruns. Last year hit only .245 and 9 homeruns. After being placed on waivers last year, it really shows how much is value has declined. I really think Hawpe will get back to his normal production which would turn out great to someone signing him for a cheap 1 year deal.
Nick Johnson played very little for the Yankees last year after an injury filled season. Even when he did play, he did not hit well. Johnson is not a 1st baseman that hits for great power but he does hit for a solid AVG. He is now 32 and I think, if healthy, could put up solid numbers at DH or splitting time at first base.
Garret Atkins is turning 31 this December and could still get his career back on track. Atkins put up fantastic numbers in his first 4 full Major League seasons. He averaged 22 homeruns, about 104 RBI, and a batting AVG of about .301. Where has that talent gone over the last two years? Put Atkins with a great hitting coach and I think he will get back on track. I see him signing a minor league contract with a spring training invite for some team.
Ronnie Belliard was cut last year by the Dodgers after a disappointing year. Belliard is a 35 year old infielder that is capable of hitting for a good average but with very little power. He his still a great defender and has played 2nd, 3rd, and 1st. I think he will be signed for a minor league contract but will be very determined to help a team out after being cut in 2010. I don’t see him being a starter but instead a very valuable utility man.
Jeremy Bonderman was drafted in the first round but he hasn’t been able to put it together in the bigs. He is still only 28 but he has yet to have a season with an ERA less than 4 in 8 full major league seasons. He is coming off a 4Y/$38M contract and I would expect a team to sign him for a 1-2 year contract that isn’t worth much. Hopefully he turns his career around.
Jeff Francis is a tall 6’5” lefty that was drafted in the first round. He is now 29 and just like Bonderman, he hasn’t been able to get his career together. He sat out all of 2009 after recovering from shoulder surgery. He could be signed for either a major or minor league contract and I see him being a number 4 or 5 starter if healthy.
Justin Duchscherer is now 33 and he has seen a career filled with injuries. He has put up great numbers over his career but he always seems to be hurt. He sat out all of 2009 and played only 5 games last year. He has a career ERA of 3.13 but in limited time as he has not broken 145 IP in any of his 8 seasons. A one year contract for about 1-2 million is I think he will get which could turn out great IF he is healthy.
Brandon Webb could be a huge reward to a team. The now 31 year old former Cy Young Winner saw one start in 2009 and did not play at all last year. He has a career ERA of 3.27 and has shown he can be a very dominant right handed pitcher. He may be more expensive than the other pitchers I have listed but he could be a great pickup.
Some other possible guys are Mevlin Mora, Chris Young, Todd Wellemeyer, and Jarrod Washburn.
Just because a player has these characteristic doesn’t mean they are a for sure lock to have a bounce back year. That is why they are a low/risk high reward player. No one expects much out of them but there is a chance they could put up great numbers. Not all of these players will turn it around and have a great season next year or even a good season, but I think some of these guys will turn it around under a small contract.
Who will score big and sign a low risk player that turns out to have a great year? We will just have to wait and see!
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