In Search of a Starter

This offseason a lot of teams have been signing low risk pitchers to either a minor league deal or a cheap (in terms of major league money) major league deal. The Royals and Mets have been doing a good job bringing in these types of pitchers this offseason. It would be smart for the Mariners to bring in 1 or 2 of these guys. It appears there are only 3 guys that are locks in the rotation; Felix-Vargas-Fister. After them it is anybody’s game. Signing another pitcher would add some starting pitching depth and there are some cheap options out there that the Mariners can afford.



Jeremy Bonderman



Some notable guys that I think the Mariners should take into consideration are Rodrigo Lopez, Braden Looper, Doug Davis, Dave Bush, Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Duchscherer, and Jarrod Washburn (if he doesn’t retire).

The guys that I think would be the best fits and who I want to focus on are Dave Bush and Jeremy Bonderman. I don’t think the Mariners would be able to sign either one of these guys to a minor league deal but a cheap major league deal with some incentives would get the job done. Whenever you are considering pitchers like this I think it is best to look at how they might benefit from playing on your team, in your stadium, with your coaches, and with the other players on the team.

First I want to give a little background information on each pitcher.

• Dave Bush is now 31 years old and is a right handed pitcher. He is 6’2” 205lb. He has a career ERA of 4.66 in 1104.0 innings pitched. He has played for the Brewers the last 5 years. He had a 4.54 ERA last year in 174.1 innings. He offers a fastball, curve, slider, and changeup. He used his curve a lot in 2010, 22.6% of his pitches which was the 6^th highest percentage in the Majors. His stats are simply average as well as his stuff and that’s its exactly what Bush is… average That’s what you get out of a back of the rotation starter which is what Seattle needs
• Jeremy Bonderman, 6’2” 220lb, is only 28 years old which is surprising due to the fact that he has been starting regularly for 8 years with the Tigers. The righty made his debut at 20 and quickly put on a heavy work load at a young age. At the age of 24 he had already pitched in 923.1 innings. In 2008 he suffered a blood clot in his throwing arm which altered his mechanics and hurt his velocity. In 2008-2009 he pitched in only 81.2 innings at the big league level. 2010 was the first season he got back into things, pitching 171.0 innings with an ERA of 5.53. His career ERA is 4.89. One more thing is that he is a Washington Native from Pasco, WA.

Let’s take a look at the 2011 Bill James projections for each player:

	ERA	FIP	IP	K/9	BB/9
D. Bush	4.50	4.71	174.0	6.00	2.48
J. Bonderman	4.58	4.44	179.0	6.84	3.09

Now that you know a little more about these guys why would they be good fits in Seattle? Well, the one thing that stands out the most is that they do give up the homerun ball at a high rate. Both post a HR/9 that is above the league average. Safeco is one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the league which would greatly help these pitchers. Almost every Mariners pitcher last year had better splits at home compared to away. This was not the case for Bush and Bonderman.

Comerica Park in Detroit was Bonderman’s home field and Miller Park in Milwaukee was Bush’s home field. These stadiums are not much a pitcher’s friend at all compared to what Seattle pitchers have with Safeco. Each of these players had a higher HR/9 and homerun to fly ball Ratio at home.

	HR/FB (Home)	HR/FB (Away)	HR/9 (Home)	HR/9 (Away)
D. Bush	12.9%	9.3%	1.65	1.18
J. Bonderman	12.5%	10.3%	1.37	1.35

Looking at those stats, they certainly would benefit pitching in Safeco field. Jason Vargas is a prime for a player that has benefited from having Safeco Field as his home field. His HR/9 at home is .32 less compared to on the road.

I would like to point out another reason on why these pitchers would benefit playing for the Mariners.  I view the Mariners as having a much better defense compared to the Tigers and Brewers. Every pitcher enjoys having better fielders behind him.

One last thing to leave you guys with. Here are the 2011 Bill James projections that are available for the other Mariners’ possible starting pitchers so you can see how Bush and Bonderman would fit in.

	ERA	FIP	IP	K/9	BB/9
Vargas	4.29	4.39	195.0	6.23	3.09
Hernandez	3.31	3.30	223.0	8.23	2.91
Fister	4.33	3.93	183.0	5.95	2.07
French	4.38	4.41	156.0	5.13	2.83
Pauley	5.18	4.59	146.0	5.79	2.96
Bedard	3.55	3.56	66.0	8.86	3.55



Dave Bush



I would love to see Zduriencik bring in either Bush or Bonderman. They would fit in well as a number 3 or 4 starter. If I had to choose one I would take Bush. You don’t have the injury risk in Bush like you have with Bonderman and Bush would be cheaper. I also think Bush would benefit playing in Safeco field more and would therefore post better numbers.