Mariners 2011 Rotation

The Mariners had one of the best rotations last year in the American League in terms of ERA. The wins category is a different story due to the lack of run support, which was the story of the season. The following starting pitchers all started games last year; Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, Ryan Rowland-Smith, David Pauley, Luke French, and Ian Snell. Lee, Rowland-Smith, and Ian Snell are no longer in the organization leaving us with five guys that started in the bigs last year.

Felix is a lock as the ace (all hail the king). After him is where it gets messy. Yes Vargas posted decent numbers last year but I assume the Mariners want more out of a number 2 starter, the only problem is that they cant afford it. Vargas had an ERA of 3.78 which is by far the best in his career. This was his first season in which he saw over 100 innings pitched. He really benefits pitching in such a pitcher friendly park. His ERA splits sum it up: 2.86 at home and 4.85 on the road- huge difference. He is a very cheap option and he has stayed healthy pitching a good amount of innings. I would like to see him as a number 3 starter behind some new acquisition but I assume he will be the number two starter.

Doug Fister really performed well the first few months before being bitten by the injury bug. He had a 2.31 ERA in April and May. He injured his right shoulder and he was placed on the DL in June. He did not start a game with the Mariners again until July. This injury appeared to affect his game. When he returned from the injury he went 3-11 with a 5.04 ERA. We have to hope he stays healthy this year and he can be a very solid middle of the rotation starter. I feel the 3 guys I listed above are the only sure bets to be in the starting rotation opening day.

Let’s talk about the other guys. French and Pauley both figure to be either back of the rotation guys or fill in starters. French showed great numbers at AAA Tacoma but those have not translated over. He had a 4.83 ERA and posted very poor strikeout numbers. Pauley had a 4.07 ERA and was a surprise to everyone. This was his first season he had more than 3 starts. Still I think he is at best a number 4-5 starter for teams in need of a pitcher. I think we will see him in the pen this year.

Pineda

There is also a certain prospect that may be ready for the rotation opening day. Top prospect, Michael Pineda, could possibly start the year in the rotation but I think it would be best for him to have a few more months at AAA. We never know though, he could destroy major league hitters in spring training and maybe the organization thinks he is ready. His plus fastball appears ready to take on big league hitters but his secondary stuff needs improvement.

We can’t forget about Erik Bedard. He has been quite the story for the Mariners, and unfortunately a sad story. Coming over from Baltimore for some of the Mariners top prospects, he has not performed up to expectations. He has dealt with many injuries and he missed all of last year. He has posted pretty good numbers when healthy though which has been rare. He is a very low risk for the Mariners as they signed him for a one-year, -non guarantee contract. I think he will be determined to redeem himself and make a case that he can be a solid big league pitcher again.

Capuano

There has also been talk about the Mariners signing a mid to back of the rotation starter which would be smart. They couldn’t afford much but they could get a decent pitcher. They have looked at lefty Jeff Francis but it appears he is showing interest in another team. We have just recently heard rumors about another name. And that name is Chris Capuano. The 6’2” lefty pitched with the Brewers last year and he has played in the NL his whole career. He had a 3.95 ERA and his career ERA is 4.35. He strikes out a decent amount of batters but nothing that stands out. The 32 year old once won 18 games in 2005. He has shown very good numbers against left handed batters but he struggles against righties. He gives up more fly balls and Safeco is a very good fly-ball pitchers park. Miller Park is smaller than Safeco so pitching in Safeco may help his stats. Not too mention he would have two gold glove outfielders. I really hope the Mariners continue to pursue Capuano. He would be a cheap yet productive option.

After looking at all these pieces there is nothing really to get excited about in the rotation once we look past Felix. Being that the money isn’t there to go get a good number two starter we will have to be patient. In 2012 there will be more money available to pursue a pitcher (Edwin Jackson!) and top prospect Michael Pineda will hopefully be much more developed. My projected rotation for 2011 starting opening day is as follows (I assume Pineda will not quite be ready):

1. Felix Hernandez
2. Jason Vargas
3. Doug Fister
4. Chris Capuano
5. Erik Bedard.

If we don’t get Capuano than I think it will look like this:

1. Felix Hernandez
2. Jason Vargas
3. Doug Fister
4. Erik Bedard
5. Luke French